Apparently, the fountain of youth can be found on British golf courses. Last year a then-53-year-old Greg Norman nearly pulled off a miraculous victory at the British Open, before fading in the final round. On today’s opening round of the British Open, 59-year old Tom Watson’s face has been all over the television for firing a 5-under 65 that gave him a share of the lead, until 45-year old Miguel Angel Jimenez shot a 6-under 64. I cannot even fathom the kind of odds that you could have received in Vegas by predicting those two golfers would be on the top of the leaderboard.
While Watson and Jimenez may fade, for fantasy golfers, performances like this just create all sorts of issues, because very few fantasy players, if any, will have selected these guys. Then, if the elder overachievers continue to perform well, fantasy golfers are faced with the question of hopping on the bandwagon and substituting them into their lineups.
Aside from the fact you are behind the curve if you do not have Tiger on your squad, the high level of week-to-week unpredictability is a big issue for fantasy golf. When you see performances like this, it makes you feel like you are just grasping at straws. Feeling like you have no particular insight into a sport tends to make you not want to keep playing it.
Update (6:10pm EDT): I just received this rebuttal from John Hohlen of Pro Tour Fantasy Golf (PTFG), and honestly, he raises some good points. In my own defense, I did not mean to imply that fantasy golf is pure luck. In fact, I am currently in the hunt in a league at PTFG, and maybe this article reflected more of my own current frustration with my picks (That’s right, I am looking right at you Tiger, Sergio, and Furyk. What do you think?
Your latest post about the British Open is based on one round out of four. By Sunday, do you think both of the elder statesmen will still be a top the leaderboard, I don’t. There are plenty of “popular” picks within just a few strokes.
Your article makes it sound like all fantasy golf games suck! Some do, especially the ones which force you to play the same lineup for 4 rounds. Being able to sub is one of the unique selling features PTFG that many other games don’t offer.
Having the old-timers lead after a round or two is great for the game of golf — and fantasy, I believe. Last year, there was a tournament where Greg Norman had a nice lead after 2 rounds (it may have been a major, I can’t remember), but it was still a hard decision on whether to put him in your lineup. A lot of people did, but unfortuantely Norman eventually lost his lead. Fantasy participants had a tough choice to make – go with your heart or play the odds. Either it way, it was great for fantasy and the game of golf. More viewers than usual tuned in because Norman was in the hunt.
If everyone won who was supposed to win, everyone finished in the position they were predicted — that’s what would make me want to quit following or playing a fantasy sport.
I don’t think fantasy golf is as unpredictable as you make it sound. Take a look at the leaders in League 3. Take a look at the Stats page and see how many winners they have picked. Most have picked over 10. That’s out of 23 weeks to date (over 50% of the time). So each week your picking 3 golfers out of 144 on average and you’ve been able to a pick a winner half the time. That’s not random luck or grasping at straws — that’s skill!
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